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"The wise man does immediately what the fool does finally."
—Niccolò Machiavelli

Hey there,

I published my notes on Tempo this week. Tempo is a look at decision-making that focuses on narrative as opposed to a more traditional "calculative rationality" that you see in most decision making research. Rather than focusing on how to be more "rational," it acknowledges and embraces the idea that humans are not dispassionate calculators.

Rather, we rely heavily on narrative and story to make decisions about a world that is so complex we could not possibly engage in rational calculation even if we wanted to. Starting from this premise, it looks at how we can embrace and improve our ‘irrational’ decision-making.
I originally read this book when it came out maybe 8 or so years ago but have been down an ops rabbit hole in the last six months and enjoyed revisiting it.

My Mutiny Fund partner Jason and Corey Hoffstein are back with their show Pirates of Finance. Every week they do a deep dive into what's going on in markets. This week they talked about Hot Money, Optimal Leverage, Commodity Strategies, Backtesting Mistakes, and ESG Retaliation. You can watch here: "Sales up...Expenses down" Pirates are back! Season 03:01

We also recently had a Mutiny Fund podcast on How to Turn Pro as a Trader with Noel Smith & Darrin Johnson.

If you enjoy or get value from The Interesting Times, I'd really appreciate it if you would support it by forwarding it to a friend or sharing it wherever you typically share this sort of thing - (Twitter, LinkedIn, Slack groups, etc.) You can read past editions here.

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The Best of What I've Been Consuming


The Limits of Friendship
The New Yorker

Many people are aware of Dunbar’s number: 150 people - the number of people that a person would consider friends or invite to a large party. It makes sense that weddings are frequently around 150 people in size!

However Dunbar's original research is not just a single number, but a series of them.

Dunbar discovered that the number grows and decreases according to a precise formula, roughly a "rule of three."

The next step down, fifty, is the number of people we call close friends—perhaps the people you’d invite to a group dinner. You see them often, but not so much that you consider them to be true intimates.

Then there’s the circle of fifteen: the friends that you can turn to for sympathy when you need it, the ones you can confide in about most things.

The most intimate Dunbar number, five, is your close support group. These are your best friends (and often family members).

On the flipside, groups can extend to five hundred, the acquaintance level, and to fifteen hundred, the absolute limit—the people for whom you can put a name to a face. While the group sizes are relatively stable, their composition can be fluid.

I’ve always found this to be a helpful framing for thinking about relationships. I’ve made lists of people at various times and try to talk to the ~15 people I am closest with at least monthly and the ~50 people at least yearly (ideally in person which typically means trips to where I grew up, went to college, and cities I lived in).

This newsletter is, in part, a tool for keeping in touch with the ~1500 weak ties who I like and have often met but haven’t gotten to know super well (though I hope that will change over time!)




Hidden Forces

A great conversation on the history of central banking. There seems to be no topic in finance people love to talk about as much as the Federal Reserve and other Central Banks like the Bank of England and ECB.

However, I very rarely meet people who understand the history of the institutions and how they think. This conversation starts with the creation of the Bank of England in the late 1700’s and continues up through 2020 with the evolution of central banks and the rise of shadow banking - effectively non-regulated banking activity which has grown in the last 50 years.

There were lots of great pieces to this including how the 2008 GFC can actually be seen more as a bank run than a mortgage crisis.


eCommerce Fuel

A great look at the state of the eCommerce market today.

My second job was at an eCommerce company in the early 2010s. We manufactured our own products, but the dominant model at that time was drop shipping or wholesale/whitelabel models. At the time, most traditional manufacturers didn’t understand digital marketing and there was a sort of arbitrage where if you were online marketing savvy, you could resell products and share a nice mark-up.

It always seemed obvious to me that the punch bowl wasn’t going to last and manufacturers were going to get wise. Well, they did.

We compared key stats between different business types and competitive advantages and the winner was startling obvious: manufacturing as a model and branding/storytelling as a competitive advantage stole the show in nearly every metric.

Amazon was a big driver in this as many Chinese manufacturers eventually figured out how to sell directly via Amazon, but the story is broader than that.

Also notable in the report is the importance of operational efficiency.

Operational efficiency had just as large of an impact. Top brands in the growing and profitable group had half as many people on their payroll, were 25% more likely to outsource warehouse operations and 25% less reliant on paid traffic.

Taylor Holiday from Common Thread Collective tweeted something that illustrates the point perfectly. He said: "You don’t have a ROAS problem. You have a margin problem."

For many brands, he’s spot on. You can just as easily replace ‘margin problem’ with ‘too many employees problem’, ‘business model problem’ or ‘paid traffic addiction problem’.

Ops people! Ops!

As always, if you're enjoying The Interesting Times, I'd love it if you shared it with a friend (or three). You can send them here to sign up. I try to make it one of the best emails you get every week and I'm always open to feedback on how to better do that.

If you'd like to see everything I'm reading, you can follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn for articles and podcasts. I'm on Goodreads for books. Finally, if you read anything interesting this week, please hit reply and send it over!

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The Interesting Times is a short note to help you better invest your time and money in an uncertain world as well as a digest of the most interesting things I find on the internet, centered around antifragility, complex systems, investing, technology, and decision making. Past editions are available here.
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